Swings + Roundabouts Spring 2020

Isn’t it funny how the smallest things can have such big impacts? On 9 November 1965, in the gathering winter gloom, a simple relay setting plunged more than 30 million Americans and Canadians into darkness, trapping 800,000 people on the subways, and diverting more than 250 in-coming flights at John F Kennedy airport. In January 1986, an O-ring failure spelt disaster for the Challenger space shuttle, which broke up just 73 seconds after launch. In the late 1990s, we were worried about the impact that a tiny piece of Y2K software code might (or might not) have on humanity, and in 2020 the world ground perilously close to a halt, thanks to the microscopic COVID-19 virus. Yes, 2020 has been a challenging year, but the worst might yet be still to come. The issue of infection and mortality rates to one side, some commentators have pointed out that the longer-term economic impacts of COVID-19 may far outweigh its initial health impact in 2020. Early Childhood Centres, like many other businesses, will have felt the wider effects of pandemic lock-down this year. While wage subsidies may have gone some way towards helping staff through the crisis, ECC owners have still had to find ways to service other on-going overhead costs such as rent, security, insurance, and interest payments. For the majority of people in the ECE sector, the COVID-19 crisis came ‘out of the blue’, and preventative mitigations were few- and-far-between. So, what can be done about this sort of event, especially if we find ourselves facing new epidemics or other catastrophes, in subsequent years? What, if anything, can we do (in either a pro-active or reactive sense) to better prepare ourselves for disruption? ADVERSITY AND OPPORTUNITY BY PHIL SALES I have to say that, for my part, the recent lock-down wasn’t anywhere near as bad as I was expecting. In the fortnight leading up to 25 March my work went strangely quiet, as people were unsure what exactly the effect of lock-down would be. So, initially I thought that I might be looking at a few months enforced gardening, some quality time with my family, and maybe a few quiet barbecues, if the autumn weather stayed nice. However, within a few days, my inbox was filling with requests from clients for as much business training as possible. Certainly, some clients were in serious trouble, and for others there was an opportunity to concentrate on capability-building and upskilling while things were quiet, but that wasn’t the main reason for the enquiries. Most of the interest was in doing as much ‘business as usual’ as possible, given that we were now in very unusual times. So, I found myself being asked questions such as whether I could provide online training modules, or whether I could deliver online training in place of other trainers who weren’t confident using Zoom? The result was a busy (and relatively productive) lock- down for me, at a time when many other businesses were almost standing still. To be honest, I don’t think it is fair to say that businesses were ‘standing still’. Some of them were able to continue trading under their existing business model, while others quickly adapted to new models, such as online trading, or taking forward-orders. Others seemed to use the opportunity to do some solid business planning, consolidating their position, preparing for post lock-down, or scouting for other opportunities. Personally, I know of one major car-dealer, who took so many unexpected vehicle orders in April and May that he had to bring back furloughed staff in order to manage the enquiries. The situation was probably helped by very low interest rates and necessary purchases by returning ex-pat New Zealanders, but that (of course!) is the point of examples like these. Rather than blandly accepting gloom-and-doom scenarios, we need to take a more positive and expansive view of the opportunities which new situations can present to us. The RAAF model is one useful way of systematising response to a crisis: R ealise what is happening; A ssess the situation; A cknowledge the true impact; and then F ind solutions. These steps require both critical and creative appraisal, and a balance of realism and idealism. Sadly, there is sometimes a tendency to respond to a crisis by ‘catastrophising’ the situation. This response tends to dilute our ability to take control of the things which we have some influence over, and to render us powerless, as a result. There can be good reasons why we may feel that a situation is beyond our control. The sheer size and complexity of a problem may play its part, as can peer pressure and group-think. However, we are not always as powerless in-the-face-of-adversity, as we may think. This point was brought home to me by an email which arrived in my inbox in early April. It was from a colleague who had decided to collate stories of business adversity, and to publish these tales in a book. As she had some prior publishing experience, and was working in the disability support sector, it seemed logical to combine this with her interest in business, and to produce an anthology of adversity stories. The premise behind the book was interesting, as she saw it being her contribution to struggling New Zealand businesses, facing the COVID-19 crisis. September 2020 { 30 }